Welcome to inductive reasoning! Last time you mastered deductive logic where true premises guarantee true conclusions. Now we're exploring a different kind of reasoning that's everywhere in daily life.

Ever notice how you make predictions based on past experiences?

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What recent prediction did you make based on past experience?

Unlike deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning deals with probability, not certainty. You observe patterns and make educated guesses about what might happen next.

"Every swan I've seen is white, so swans are probably white." Sound familiar?

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Does that seem certain or just probable?

Here's the key difference: inductive arguments aren't valid or invalid—they're strong or weak. Strong inductive reasoning makes conclusions very probable, but never 100% certain.

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Can you think of a prediction you made based on past experience?

Let's look at generalization, the most common inductive pattern. You observe some members of a group and make conclusions about the whole group.

"I've met three people from that company—they were all friendly. That company probably has friendly employees."

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What makes this reasoning strong or weak?

The strength of generalization depends on your sample size and diversity. Meeting three people is better than meeting one, but meeting thirty is even better.

Also, if all three were from the same department, that's less reliable than meeting people from different departments.

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What other factors might affect the strength of this reasoning?

Inductive reasoning is crucial for everyday decisions. You choose restaurants based on past experiences, trust friends based on their track record, and avoid risky situations based on patterns.

It's how you navigate uncertainty when you can't be 100% certain.

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When did you last use inductive reasoning to make an important decision?

Type

Sort Into Boxes

Practice Question

Let's practice distinguishing deductive from inductive reasoning. Sort these examples into the correct boxes:

Labels

• First Box Label: Deductive
• Second Box Label: Inductive

First Box Items

• Roses are flowers
• If-then logic
• Certainty guaranteed

Second Box Items

• Rains on Mondays
• Patterns predict future
• Probability based